Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
33.0 miles South-West of Felicity
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.0 miles South-West of Felicity
32.3531°N, 115.0598°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 02:40:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 3.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d1b30e1fc92a3800d966998e9a8a5067e09886eac0e8dc9488be6c6fc3dfa182
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.35--115.06-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 13:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260813_041513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 13:47:54.526147+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.