Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
60.4 miles South-West of La Jolla
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
60.4 miles South-West of La Jolla
32.3635°N, 118.1474°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 16:55:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
118.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
27.8 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e9c303cb76be6713077f06024e5f391f35e81bd1d21fcf52eb6e2f98ff11583
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.36--118.15-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 03:34:21 PST
Source Batch
20260802_175908_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 03:34:22.291936+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.