Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
30.1 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.1 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3885°N, 115.1143°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 01:00:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
77.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4b66992a3c0436e3e0148f600c29aa4313089487c9d32b4cb8fbe02460df066d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.39--115.11-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 12:55:39 PST
Source Batch
20260812_032428_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 12:55:40.279427+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.