Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
26.7 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.7 miles South-East of Calexico
32.4347°N, 115.1431°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 22:07:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 3.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
29ea2ab184be28c72277edf49c56eb7f5dc7454e4bc083208c81a804f36519d6
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-32.43--115.14-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 10:56:00 PST
Source Batch
20260814_012259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 10:56:00.474842+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.