Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
8.2 miles South of Holtville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.2 miles South of Holtville
32.6994°N, 115.3303°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 11:37:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
382h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
151.3 km
26.3 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
1.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
23.8 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cfea4f18b6378a7fe9b4738d033f587becc0d68813ad83b4c19f0e6d62637096
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.70--115.33-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 13:08:18 PST
Source Batch
20260807_045412_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 03:53:30.040541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.