Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
3.4 miles North-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles North-East of Calexico
32.7176°N, 115.4628°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 04:39:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
359h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
21.4 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ad7f3f7fe1e4aa6c10c6a59ca5022247ae9edc1eb6d2fad306950ae95d5c5668
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.72--115.46-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 05:00:42 PST
Source Batch
20260810_204629_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 20:34:54.161848+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.