Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.3 miles North of Westmorland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles North of Westmorland
33.1138°N, 115.6090°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 08:27:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
100.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
46h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
33.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
25.9 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
19d45b9a7482894abbf02f99e5eeb8acdfdba7438eaf5f2c5443fafa3c39e3b0
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.11--115.61-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 09:53:46 PST
Source Batch
20260827_114456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 09:53:52.269252+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-26 09:53:46.801826+00:00 2026-08-27T11:38:38.609737+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 08:27:49.564000+00:00 2026-08-28T08:27:49.564
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-26 09:53:46.801826+00:00 2026-08-27T11:38:38.609737+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 08:27:49.564000+00:00 2026-08-28T08:27:49.564
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 13:30 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-26 09:53:46.801826+00:00 2026-08-27T20:30:34.725446+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 13:30 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 08:27:49.564000+00:00 2026-08-28T08:27:49.564
"pipeline re-ingest"
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