Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.1 miles West of Niland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles West of Niland
33.2128°N, 115.6196°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 05:42:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
50h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
43.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
20.8 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
d3de6a6909d7dad9ebe0fca57bebcf2cf53fd88e981b96a0ad0093c4783b7c40
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.21--115.62-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 22, 2026 02:51:29 PST
Source Batch
20260822_155314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-22 02:51:29.733006+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 22, 2026 00:16 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-22 02:51:29.284577+00:00 2026-08-22T07:16:01.550631+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 00:16 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-24 05:42:44.703000+00:00 2026-08-24T05:42:44.703
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 17:44 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-22 02:51:29.284577+00:00 2026-08-23T00:44:09.780427+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 22, 2026 17:44 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-24 05:42:44.703000+00:00 2026-08-24T05:42:44.703
"pipeline re-ingest"
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