Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
8.4 miles West of Niland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles West of Niland
33.2175°N, 115.6624°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 08:27:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
100.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
649e115eb00351d6ab3f0dda57b9ad238d7d075389d166a1c984becf970415da
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.22--115.66-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 28, 2026 22:57:29 PST
Source Batch
20260828_223425_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-28 22:57:30.387180+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-28 08:27:49.564000+00:00
2026-08-28T08:27:49.564
"pipeline re-ingest"
longitude
-115.6624
-115.6641
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-28 22:57:29.815551+00:00
2026-08-29T10:41:50.855421+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"