Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.0 miles West of Niland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles West of Niland
33.2399°N, 115.6403°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 19:48:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
120.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 8.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
47892d49eb453b4ad515ba0b4f0caeb9f09e8ebe4b63c860161552924ea34353
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.24--115.64-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 20, 2026 08:17:02 PST
Source Batch
20260821_044809_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-20 08:17:03.361055+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 21, 2026 02:14 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-21 19:48:03.461000+00:00 2026-08-21T19:48:03.461
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 02:14 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-20 08:17:02.330699+00:00 2026-08-21T09:14:20.941983+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 06:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-21 19:48:03.461000+00:00 2026-08-21T19:48:03.461
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 21, 2026 06:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-20 08:17:02.330699+00:00 2026-08-21T13:38:58.624522+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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