Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.9 miles South of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles South of Bombay Beach
33.2373°N, 115.7513°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 08:42:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
174h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 10.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
928a4a46a1dba64f8d83c9852675ef210927d5f8bdffd7f328fe48fbaff477a2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.24--115.75-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 02:23:44 PST
Source Batch
20260731_181047_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 12:53:10.445097+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.