Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
1.7 miles West of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.7 miles West of Bombay Beach
33.3529°N, 115.7581°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 08:52:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
52h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
28.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
35.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
24.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 9.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
985d57332cc7467f95c13808d0500fc4bab5a449f37c88bb8b3c7643c63fb4bf
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.35--115.76-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 04:22:16 PST
Source Batch
20260815_170124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 04:22:17.835354+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-17 08:52:29.396000+00:00
2026-08-17T08:52:29.396
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-15 04:22:16.844712+00:00
2026-08-16T01:17:41.733769+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"