Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
19.0 miles South-West of Huntington Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.0 miles South-West of Huntington Beach
33.4369°N, 118.1931°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 22:59:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3b1e0a3403fe5694eb26d4f2df73d2e8fd1b1bb6f2d3da98e93797d694b5077a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.44--118.19-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 20:30:30 PST
Source Batch
20260805_105832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 13:14:06.311538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.