Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
19.1 miles North-West of Rice
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.1 miles North-West of Rice
34.1747°N, 115.2882°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 22:30:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
114.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
11.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4c4c80fddc39d66f6c8531bce520b1be282ffe9dcc03aa7463bea060d3e03ad3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.17--115.29-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 09:24:07 PST
Source Batch
20260806_235136_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 09:24:08.811392+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.