Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
6.4 miles North-East of Ventura
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles North-East of Ventura
34.3564°N, 119.1750°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 07:33:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c2a4dd5d4a5a1e4aa0ecbe86a69f3c249410ae2ceee814e9a8bd372683158010
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--119.17-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 16:44:47 PST
Source Batch
20260809_071135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 16:44:47.664114+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.