Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.3 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4173°N, 119.1996°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 07:17:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
118.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
23.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cdbd88eb51cc5999adba3e049c4d164e54a8be94ad9623f456f2fa43a386585a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.42--119.20-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 14:58:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_052549_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.