Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
2.0 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.0 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4322°N, 119.2143°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 05:42:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
47h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
47.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7981815d3d140b68e573966a68997a112cef0eaafb077140877aa246f05b0632
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.43--119.21-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 05:56:27 PST
Source Batch
20260804_202429_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.