Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
2.8 miles East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.8 miles East of Ojai
34.4475°N, 119.1943°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 04:47:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
48h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
118.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
238c117493508ae8693ab2e28ae82703d416b4f005d31981273c1019bcf8319c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--119.19-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Source Batch
20260807_182918_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 09:24:08.811392+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.