Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
1.1 miles East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles East of Ojai
34.4518°N, 119.2237°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 16:39:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
116.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e3559c86bc6582d366e3409b9de599e5f3d0443626cead261542abfd9db73c3c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--119.22-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 02:00:06 PST
Source Batch
20260806_162723_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 22:19:27.496612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.