Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
0.5 miles North of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.5 miles North of Ojai
34.4550°N, 119.2415°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 15:37:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
44h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
114.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4a0e340e2cdef174e5c3dcc3407125b1f758c4aa7eda8acae6f4612ff07d4e3a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--119.24-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 18:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260806_090614_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 18:38:01.086399+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.