Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.6 miles North-East of Santa Clarita
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North-East of Santa Clarita
34.4588°N, 118.4612°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 13:01:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
46h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
101.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
22264ff5b7a3f5a038e0bbde6e5e72ab7846605a19e5d6c570e589586cfea154
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.46--118.46-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 14:58:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_052549_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.