Permanent Prediction Record

Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude

M3.1

1.8 miles East of Ojai

Original Prediction Parameters

Predicted Location

1.8 miles East of Ojai

34.4577°N, 119.2139°W

Forecast Time Window

16th of August 2026

Aug 16, 2026 06:31:13 PST

Predicted Magnitude

M3.1

Predicted value

Focal Depth

1.8 km

Below surface

Prediction Type

Prospective

Live forward-issued before the event

Lead Time

22h 40m

Advance notice before predicted event time

Location Map

Predicted epicentre

Matched Earthquake

⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error

116.0 km

Within 125 km tolerance

Time Error

27.2 h

Within 48 h tolerance

Magnitude Error

0.43

Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7

Depth Error

6.7 km

Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 4.8 km

Matched Event Location

Integrity & Provenance

Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)

3ba96eda91794e0371051a0fcdc7a2d2dd7063f817e56ff24f88568989e77aef

Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.

Prediction ID

loc-34.46--119.21-t10340

Evaluation Protocol

Model Version

Prediction Type

Prospective

Publication Batch (UTC)

Aug 15, 2026 07:51:02 PST

Source Batch

20260815_154602_prediction_JSON_file.json

First Recorded (UTC)

2026-08-15 07:51:07.588554+00:00

Amendment History