Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
1.4 miles North of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.4 miles North of Ojai
34.4675°N, 119.2497°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 19:34:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
14.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 4.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
0c9facefc79dee9058532ae5d36a3a4875d19000c1459f1c23c34b15d7f199be
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.47--119.25-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 16, 2026 04:50:33 PST
Source Batch
20260815_191807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-16 04:50:35.845122+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.