Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
5.8 miles North-East of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles North-East of Pine Mountain Club
34.8994°N, 119.0796°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 15:56:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
108.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.71
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1224368ee93ded8dea0fe5c857e5fe7a2ac6ea7f46da96092d3dc9538a690d0d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.90--119.08-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 22:40:46 PST
Source Batch
20260804_130943_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 22:40:47.884037+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.