Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
18.9 miles South-East of Cholame
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.9 miles South-East of Cholame
35.5227°N, 120.0690°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 05:02:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.34
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
10.1 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
cad1bccaf5ace9cabc1fa9e61e0c3317eaa5f801d93d1b5314fec16e35f233bb
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-35.52--120.07-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 20, 2026 08:17:02 PST
Source Batch
20260819_215603_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-20 08:17:03.361055+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.