Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
14.4 miles South-East of Cholame
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.4 miles South-East of Cholame
35.5660°N, 120.1283°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 18:22:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
46.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
6.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.34
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
18.3 km
Pred. 13.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
5889244c951464fa8bb3f0d4894d52c7d8a50fcb9cedb3e3892850f11f5976ff
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-35.57--120.13-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 22, 2026 11:40:33 PST
Source Batch
20260822_011950_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-22 11:40:34.247903+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.