Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
26.8 miles North of Fort Irwin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.8 miles North of Fort Irwin
35.6233°N, 116.8582°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 14:58:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
101.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
39.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b7961c7b2b4ded528df37d0888c7734f0afc9a3289fd75203cfefb6ed3b5f385
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.62--116.86-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 07:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260813_215259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 07:25:42.204268+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.