Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
115.7 miles South-West of Monterey
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
115.7 miles South-West of Monterey
35.7612°N, 123.6902°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 02:45:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.9 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
10.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
231.6 km
106.6 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 0.9 km vs actual 8.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
f6eb752caba6a17cd54f8223171936c0a0e1b41b3288a8cbbf286486d4da5403
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-35.76--123.69-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 29, 2026 10:41:50 PST
Source Batch
20260829_064257_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-29 10:41:51.520523+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-29 02:45:30.676000+00:00
2026-08-29T08:29:23.857
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-29 10:41:50.855421+00:00
2026-08-29T22:26:18.452449+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"