Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
10.4 miles South-East of Coso
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.4 miles South-East of Coso
35.9237°N, 117.7293°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 22:31:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
22.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
56.3 h
8.3 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ebfbfef55b1834e5d2240e32e2e2fd0f39bd97ddb0cfb2822d556efee0969c26
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.92--117.73-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 12:55:39 PST
Source Batch
20260812_044041_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 19:13:48.474080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.