Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
6.2 miles South of Avenal
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles South of Avenal
35.9184°N, 120.1017°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 16:24:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.9 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
0.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
1.4 km
Pred. 0.9 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
01e251d017f6b00a4ba7add49e96f05649336c788e07a9f84b92518b387c4220
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-35.92--120.10-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 28, 2026 22:57:29 PST
Source Batch
20260828_071635_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-28 22:57:30.387180+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.