Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
51.6 miles South-West of Monterey
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
51.6 miles South-West of Monterey
35.9291°N, 122.2994°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 16:31:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
187.2 km
62.1 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
9.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
23.5 km
Pred. 13.9 km vs actual 9.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
006bd2cdb697444b51decb843c75e2e57aa84f0a29abc218bf6f6cb32bf429d7
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-35.93--122.30-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 09:53:46 PST
Source Batch
20260826_041236_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 09:53:52.269252+00:00
Amendment History
run_tag
2026-08-26 09:53:46.801826+00:00
2026-08-26T14:53:12.962207+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
latitude
35.9291
35.9271
"pipeline re-ingest"
event_time
2026-08-26 16:31:12.753000+00:00
2026-08-26T16:31:12.753
"pipeline re-ingest"