Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
10.1 miles South-East of Coso
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.1 miles South-East of Coso
35.9428°N, 117.7161°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 22:41:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
39h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
21.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
37b8b21d6cd3155ac666927207bf702ef4d924b405456d5265b9554c78a401a8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.94--117.72-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 06:44:32 PST
Source Batch
20260812_222816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 16:26:18.474426+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.