Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
10.3 miles South of Springville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles South of Springville
35.9853°N, 118.7943°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 08:19:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
111h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
6.1 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 3.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc0dca5f35b2dd801a20ff43de659d0abd738d12208c3e20300de375dc6b905b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-35.99--118.79-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 16:26:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_081406_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 09:26:33.276761+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.