Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
39.4 miles South of Monterey
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.4 miles South of Monterey
36.0313°N, 121.8346°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 09:20:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
100.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
43da42f8df0754c2139b26f253908635585a64455c29a45bc1ff9af44fbc1dfd
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-36.03--121.83-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 27, 2026 11:38:38 PST
Source Batch
20260827_012655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-27 11:38:39.310265+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.