Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
2.2 miles South-East of Three Rivers
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles South-East of Three Rivers
36.4097°N, 118.8875°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 09:48:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
293h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
70.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
28.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
35.5 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 20.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
6bb7673e562031c174471fffb5a19e44f895de8a48cb21ce81d09ee9a8d9da70
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-36.41--118.89-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 04:22:16 PST
Source Batch
20260815_170124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 04:22:17.835354+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-27 09:48:18.022000+00:00
2026-08-27T09:48:18.022
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-15 04:22:16.844712+00:00
2026-08-16T01:17:41.733769+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"