Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.1 miles South-East of Basalt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.1 miles South-East of Basalt
36.8743°N, 117.9520°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 06:29:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
753h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
103.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
19.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
849302890bec3f3f8cb147e0b8355540f2dbc879009ab80e99f42ae0ba0be3bd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.87--117.95-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_090504_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.