Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.9 miles North-West of Beatty Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles North-West of Beatty Junction
36.8751°N, 116.8791°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 02:35:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
101.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.3 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 4.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8cc408f469a2fdcba4bfb2d5130768ff13852e9d2e638d828a494183beb63c78
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-36.88--116.88-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 20:27:13 PST
Source Batch
20260802_105334_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 20:27:14.823204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.