Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
28.2 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.2 miles South of Tracy
37.3448°N, 121.2981°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 06:40:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
76.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
9.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 13.0 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
b6e0bd419edcb907babf87ee5760bfde41d0014b24c12c6106afebb7f4d612d4
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-37.34--121.30-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 19:15:42 PST
Source Batch
20260826_133320_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 19:15:43.237778+00:00
Amendment History
run_tag
2026-08-26 19:15:42.718503+00:00
2026-08-26T23:37:30.295815+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
event_time
2026-08-28 06:40:06.707000+00:00
2026-08-28T09:33:49.919
"pipeline re-ingest"