Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
24.2 miles North of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.2 miles North of Gilroy
37.3543°N, 121.5183°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 06:38:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
25.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
18.8 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
d3e24480979d2dc808c0b98df31de1aca3b624d57c95abdf771b19a774b2ef3c
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-37.35--121.52-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 28, 2026 11:11:42 PST
Source Batch
20260827_144745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-28 11:11:43.213695+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.