Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
18.9 miles East of San Jose
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.9 miles East of San Jose
37.3548°N, 121.5428°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 14:02:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
25.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
26h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
16.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 0.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
8997c8e813902915ed6ec58f985666fcd2cee65be30599f74ee6edda31926162
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-37.35--121.54-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 27, 2026 11:38:38 PST
Source Batch
20260827_012655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-27 11:38:39.310265+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.