Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.2 miles North-West of Chalfant
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.2 miles North-West of Chalfant
37.6307°N, 118.4820°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 18:42:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
33.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
44.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.56
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
24.6 km
Pred. 14.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fe946de22c7174e93031617c7286dd8b7ae035896fa6f16b256f7cc1c8979e4b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.63--118.48-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_061112_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.