Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
26.1 miles South of Pinole
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.1 miles South of Pinole
37.6410°N, 122.8728°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 21:06:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
109h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
54.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
33.9 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 18.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
4770c14993789cbe18b4862cea41ef4242ae524107a88fceaeba8829079124ca
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-37.64--122.87-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 07:51:02 PST
Source Batch
20260815_100002_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 07:51:07.588554+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 15, 2026 07:48 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-19 21:06:26.552000+00:00 2026-08-19T21:06:26.552
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 07:48 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 07:51:02.639284+00:00 2026-08-15T14:48:08.267536+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 11:20 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-19 21:06:26.552000+00:00 2026-08-19T21:06:26.552
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 11:20 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 07:51:02.639284+00:00 2026-08-15T18:17:17.427770+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 14:45 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-19 21:06:26.552000+00:00 2026-08-19T21:06:26.552
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 15, 2026 14:45 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-15 07:51:02.639284+00:00 2026-08-15T21:45:37.215528+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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