Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
21.6 miles East of Goldfield
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.6 miles East of Goldfield
37.6629°N, 116.8441°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 13:47:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
124.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
47.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.48
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bd81e2ce0b7579613f7d14e2e57e99702e35b0bf04ccf3f237eac91dffadc214
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.66--116.84-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 20:30:30 PST
Source Batch
20260805_121735_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 22:40:47.884037+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.