Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.8 miles South of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South of Brentwood
37.8389°N, 121.7352°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 07:35:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
34cfb436e613a8e8440254fa470e3ef2e740f12e6392da57bb87812884744fc7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.84--121.74-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 00:12:45 PST
Source Batch
20260805_144116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 00:12:46.609111+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.