Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.6 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8412°N, 121.8043°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 16:34:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
106.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
46.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6042639c8302df2768897f5db1ad8ad4a7a5bb9e775cef68699cdb2048ea61c0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.84--121.80-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 11:17:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_014354_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 11:17:02.736866+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.