Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.0 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.0 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8822°N, 121.7325°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 13:35:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
109.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
91e181f475261f8334a8ae6b60c4e45def6b384338d1da8f8e7f82ba9ced004a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.88--121.73-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 05:56:27 PST
Source Batch
20260804_202429_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.