Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.5 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8850°N, 121.7776°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 17:15:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
110.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
23.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
845ee62cf53fa9459d2765ea6d348305b0878da6ae21f8e53f3e71a3ca96432b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.88--121.78-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 16:52:23 PST
Source Batch
20260805_072035_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 09:35:52.768791+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.