Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.4 miles South-West of Antioch
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles South-West of Antioch
37.9660°N, 121.8426°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 11:05:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
116.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
0.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 6.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d6d2139b1b5ae136d43de3ba7322699a0e37c71afef0f78ed315ac8972f78d0e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.97--121.84-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 09:26:15 PST
Source Batch
20260731_235644_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 09:26:33.276761+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.