Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
7.1 miles North-West of Candelaria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.1 miles North-West of Candelaria
38.1257°N, 118.0877°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of August 2026
Aug 30, 2026 06:47:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
55.6
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
43h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
189.6 km
64.6 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
33.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.59
Predicted M3.29 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
86472c0f3daa4a05bd7d6be338dedc6c6731353c726e7822446b3807721a7b7b
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.13--118.09-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 28, 2026 11:11:42 PST
Source Batch
20260827_192940_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-28 11:11:43.213695+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.