Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
10.0 miles North of Blair Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.0 miles North of Blair Junction
38.1273°N, 118.1410°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 00:59:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
17.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
18.7 km
Pred. 17.7 km vs actual 1.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
5cac905eb5aa9e82e0aa1bfae54c1698118fab7369f1541899e0fc9d046ac11e
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-38.13--118.14-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 05:18:48 PST
Source Batch
20260825_190152_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 05:18:48.780489+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.